Slow Comin' Water

First, a couple of notes.

My kids have started blogging -- see Beary World Stories if you would like to read some of their words of wisdom. One future topic will be an English to Lemur dictionary, so stay tuned.

Last night, I had a hand in the Riverchasers BBT3 tournament that made me feel bad. But I didn't feel bad enough, so I had to quantify how bad I should feel. It turns out I can build a misery index based on one simple parameter. Let me explain. I was on the button with about 15k in chips. The blinds and antes totalled 2100 chips. Everyone folded around to me, and I decided to raise, in order to steal the blinds and antes. I figured that my short-stacked opponent would fold a good percentage of the time. If she re-raised, I would have to call, because she only had enough for a min-raise. She raised, I called, I hit a full house to knock her out, and was roundly chastised in the chat box. I even had to put my head on my paws.

I ran the numbers, and my hand (62 offsuit) is about a 65-35 dog against two random cards. Against a fairly tight range of reraising hands (any pair, any ace), it is about a 72-28 dog. Pretty bad. Until you factor in the percentage of times she is expected to fold. If she folds, I win the blinds and antes (ignoring the small blind.) If I expect her to fold 100% of the time, then I always win 2100 chips. If I expect her to fold 0% of the time, I am a 66-34 dog (assuming I will always call the reraise.) I used the 72-28 number for my calculations, and it turns out that if I expect her to fold about 50% of the time, my expected value is positive. I do not think that is an unreasonable assumption, given that the big blind was about 15% of her stack, and she would want to make a last stand with some kind of a hand, not garbage. Maybe 50% is too optimistic, in which case I made a -EV play.

The call of the reraise was clearly +EV, as I had to call 2670 chips to win 8970, or 3.3-1 pot odds, and I was a 72-28, or 2.5-1 underdog. So strangely enough, after I acted, my new EV for the remainder of the hand was positive, no matter what she does. I like that. Of course, some of that value is "my" money coming back to me, so it doesn't change the EV from the perspective of the overall hand. But it is good to know that someone can't make an effective re-raise.

This sounds like something out of Julias Goat's Stupid/System. If it is stupid, please tell me how.

I will be at Kat's 1st anniversary Donkament (nee Martini Game) tonight, honing my skillz for my upcoming quick trip to Vegas.

:w
:n

Now, about the title of this post. I saw Mean Gene post about misheard song lyrics, and I've been saving up for a post on this topic. I may come back to it in the future, as I remember more, but here is my list:

From "Smoke on the Water":

Slooooow comin' waaaaater,

There's fire in the skaaiiee.

Of course, I knew there was a famous song called Smoke on the Water, and I knew the song with the lyrics above; I just never made the connection. Apparently, a lot of people are confused about the lyrics to this song.

From "I Will Survive":

Oh Commodore!

Just turn around now,

You're not welcome any more!

The real lyric is "Walk out the door," not "Oh Commodore!"

From "I Feel the Earth Move":

I feel the Earth move under my feet.

I feel the sky come on and down,

A come on and down,

A come on and down,

A come on and down,

A come on and down.

From "Come Back" by J. Geils Band:

You're a scumbag,

Babyyyy!

This one was perpetrated by my friend M on his sister, and I went along with it.

That's all I got. I thought I had more, but I don't. If I think of more, I'll post them.

:wq

Strange Days Indeed

The last two weekends were quite a whirlwind, as I saw my long-lost friend, permanent student Dr. Dre, in town for a Psychologist's conference, and then visited over half of the counties in the great glacier of New Hampshire. According to the calendar, it was the first Sunday after the first full moon on or after March 21, also known as the day rabbits lay chocolate eggs and marshmallow chickens. However, with 3 feet of snow on the ground, the rabbit decided to stay snug in its burrow -- no chocolate for the kids. My mother's 400 foot driveway is a rutted sheet of ice/frozen slush, complete with axle-deep potholes conveniently placed so that one needs to drive into the swamp in order to avoid them. Luckily, the snowbanks on either guide the cars back into the ruts.

I followed my Easter tradition of sleeping as late as possible, and then not taking a shower for the whole day. It's not usually a conscious decision, but more of an organic event. Several years, my wife suggested a walk around the neighborhood, and I had to scramble through the shower put on a baseball hat. I always got that familiar feeling of the believers looking at me as if I'm crazy. It started very early, in first grade, on the day after Easter. This was in the days when towns had not yet received the message that requiring children to pray in a public school is unconstitutional. We would have a minute of silent prayer every morning in first grade, and on the Monday after Easter, the teacher asked us to draw a picture on the back of a worksheet of "what you got for Easter." I drew this:

NOTHING


I told this story to my children as I tucked them in tonight, as this is their first year in public school. My second grader sounded like I felt in first grade, a little bitter and envious, and wondering what the "hell" is going on with the believers. I told her that it's OK for people to have different beliefs, and that we don't celebrate Easter, because it's more of a religious holiday than Christmas (which we do celebrate in a Santa Claus/Season's Greetings way.) I did not tell her about the 4th grader who stared at me in disbelief, saying , "You don't believe in God!?" I forgave her for that remark, because she was on my list for multiple "Saint" Valentine's Day cards casually placed in her construction paper mailbox on several trips around the classroom.



NOTHING


is also what I have won in the last week of playing poker. Not exactly nothing, but I have not made either the points or the money in any of the BBT3 tournaments. I also played some stupid cash games, such as Razz, 5-card draw, and Stud Hi/Lo. Finally last night I had a winning Hold 'em session, and this week is another 4 tournaments. Next Sunday, I head to Vegas for a quick couple of nights of poker, so I'll miss the Blogger Big Game. Good thing, because I haven't even been able to beat the token sit-n-goes.

OK, time for some non- transubstantiated libations.

:wq

Rally Against Criminalization of Poker

I attended the rally at the Massachusetts State House today to support the PPA in their effort to strike the provision criminalizing online poker from Deval Patrick's casino bill. It turns out that there is another bill being proposed by Rep. David Flynn of Bridgewater which contains the same language: http://www.mass.gov/legis/bills/house/185/ht00pdf/ht00357.pdf. It seems that the race track lobbyists are the prime suspects for placing this language in both bills, but no one will own up to it, nor will anyone admit to supporting the provision.

If you live in Massachusetts, you should be paying attention to this.

Mass Poker Playing Could Be Criminalized

Go here for more info:

http://pokerplayersalliance.org/pressreleases/newsandarticles_article.php?DID=362

Governor Deval Patrick's casino bill criminalizes online poker, to the tune of 2 years in the state pen, and $25,000. For players. Needless to say, I am outraged by this underhanded and hypocritical attempt to babysit the citizenry. I will be attending a rally on March 18, 9:30 am at the State House to protest this sleazy bit of politics (now that the paragraph has been discovered, no one will admit having included it in the first place.) I will also be contacting my state reps to let them know that I am a voting poker player, and to vote against the casino bill as long as it includes this provision.

:wq

Math Night

Well, it's not MATH night, because that is on Monday, by definition. But it was Math Night at my daughter's school. One of the games was to place six different colored tiddly winks in a paper bag, and keep making draws until you got at least one draw of each different color. There were apparently many who didn't understand, because 6 draws hit about 6 different people. Uh-huh. Maybe try putting the wink back in the bag and mixing them up between draws? The rest of them seemed fairly normal (heh), with one kid taking 19 tries and one taking 26. We got a 13 and an 11. If you squinted real hard, the distribution on the blackboard was starting look like a normal distribution. It was fun spending time with my daughter doing math games, and I will be looking for similar games we can play at home (a lot of them are on her homework sheets, but most of those are more quizzy than game-y.) We walked home by the light of the moon, and enjoyed the stars.

Tonight is also Mookie Night, and I will once again be trying to win a place in the tournament of champions of the BBT3. I cashed in both points and money in last night's Skills game, coming in 4th place. The game was Pot-limit Omaha, and I had a lot of good hands, combined with a dose of luck to make the final table. I think I must have had aces or kings at least 20 times, and doube-suited aces several of those times. I also pulled off a bluff that was either stupid or decent. I happened to be bluffing with the best hand, but I was doing it into a bigger stack, and he called me on the flop and turn. The river gave me a higher two pair on a board with a possible straight and a couple of flush draws that didn't get there. He folded, and I survived. On my final hand, I either called a small raise in a four-way pot or checked the big blind. In any case, I didn't have much of a hand, but I hit top two pair on a rainbow flop, and figured I'm good to go. I bet the 16K pot, and Astin raised all-in, having me covered. I instacalled and lost to his middle set. I'm not sure I have the discipline to get away from that hand in a short-handed situation. I should at least have taken my time to consider what he could have: bottom set, AKJ9 for a wrap draw (QT were on the board), AQxx, KQJx, TTxx (not likely), or QQxx (not likely). It turned out he had TTxx, which I didn't consider likely. So in addition to my "must have draws" PLO mantra, I will add, for all pot-limit and no-limit games, pause before calling off all of my chips.

:wq

Vegas Baby!

I made my hotel reservation for a quick trip to Vegas at the end of the month. I had a free Jet Blue ticket, and researched the cheapest hotels. I found the site TravelWorm.com through CheapoVegas.com, and I got a free night at the Palms. Since I'm only staying two nights, I'm getting a rate of less than $50 a night. I wanted to stay right on the strip, but I figure I can't beat that price. I've been to the Palms before, to a party at the nightclub Rain. I suppose if you're a twenty-something shallow person, it's probably a great place, but I thought it was lame. I grabbed some free food and drink and headed for the poker room at a dead run.

On this trip, I think I'll try to get the free shuttle to the strip (it may be to the shopping area) and play at Luxor and Excalibur. I may also try out the Caesar's Palace tournament, which I've heard is a decent deal. I'm getting in late on Sunday the 30th, so I'll either sleep or play at the Palms if there's a good game going. Either way, I'll sleep very late the next day, and then play as long as I can on Monday.

I'm back playing in the BBT3 tournaments this week. I busted out of the MATH tonight in 13th place out of 86, to earn a few points for something or other. I was mostly happy with my play, except for about 3 hands. One was raising almost half my tiny stack with A6o, and calling the button's reraise. I ended up sucking out with a 6, but, I should have gone all in instead of raising a smaller amount with a relatively weak hand. The second was reraising Kat's 3x raise when she was short, and taking a chunk out of my replenished stack. And the third was calling a reraise after a steal attempt with KJs against tilt away. He went all in on the flop, and I had to fold, leaving me short again. I doubled through the chip leader, then got short again, and finally went out after a small flurry of eliminations, probably gaining some extra points for something.

:wq

Case Dismissed

From the Simpsons movie, one of our favorite lines:

Stereotypical Jewish Mother (who is being arrested for some reason): Latkes are a deep-fried...

Chief Wiggum: Case dismissed.

An update on the note that my daughter found in her backpack. The teacher apparently read the note to the class, without naming my daughter, and said it was bad to do such things. I said great, now she will get retribution for being a tattle-tale. However, the teacher also wrote a note to Mrs. Burger, starting off with:

Dear Mrs. Burger, You are such a great mother!

Mrs. Burger: Case dismissed.

Too friggin funny.

Also funny is my Pot-Limit Omaha playing ability. Although I went out early in last night's Riverchasers tournament, I think I only made one bad blunder. That was the mistake of making a continuation bet on a board with 10-9-8 (or possibly J-10-9) against bayne (the bayne of my existence in this case.) I had just an overpair, and no draw, so I had to fold when he check-raised me. I'm not sure what I'm supposed to do in that case, even though I have position. Probably I should just check behind and give up on the hand. I had about 4k in chips left, and the blinds were at 80 and 160. Still enough to do some damage if I'm the one check-raising all-in. I think the takeaway from this hand is that the continuation bet is pointless in PLO. Unless you've got a decent draw and/or a made hand that you're willing to call a reraise with, you should not make the continuation bet.

I had experienced both edges of the drawing sword earlier. On the first hand, I had two pair on the flop, and the turn gave me a boat against my opponent's ace-high flush. He thought it was good, and I more than doubled up early. I started playing more hands, seeing if I could hit a flop with a big draw for me. It didn't happen, and I slowly chipped down. I then had a hand where both my opponent and I obviously had made the nut straight on the turn, but I had no draws. He did, and hit the full house on the river, but checked it. I had raised him on the turn, and he should have reraised on the turn or at least bet the full house on the river. I probably should have just called the turn bet, because I had no redraws. I guess my thinking was to try and take it down right then. I will internalize the mantra for next time: "Must have draws."

I will play in Kat's donkament tonight, but I will not reveal my strategy. Well, OK, since no one reads this, I will reveal it. The basic strategy is only to purchase 1000 chips at a time, rather than the double rebuy of 2000 chips. When you do this, you have the advantages of playing with a short stack, which are easier decisions, and free fold equity from other players while you are all in. Of course, you have to maintain the illusion that you are as loose and wild as everyone else, so you should go all in 4 or 5 hands in a row at some point. If you have a stack at the end of that, great, if not, you will get calls on your next all-in, which will be with a hand. With 20 minutes left in the rebuy period, up your rebuys to double if the other stacks are 8-10k or bigger. If they are still 4-6k, then stick with the singles.

If you have only 10 minutes left, then you have to play more hands and be more aggressive. Don't end up with a lame stack that will leave you with less than 3500 after the add-on at the break. Bet the odd chips so that you have 1000 exactly, or more than 2000 if you win.

After the break, there will usually be way more chips in the tournament than are normal for the first hour (this is true for all rebuy tournaments, I guess, but is more pronounced when the rebuy is only $1.) So if you have a big stack, you can afford to be very patient at this point. Don't double up the short stacks with coin flips, and don't get into big pots without a great hand. I like to attack the middle stacks when possible, no matter what size stack I have -- they have the most to lose, and so you gain some fold equity when playing against a middle stack as opposed to a desperate short stack or complacent big stack.

Last week, I missed the start of the tournament, but I won't miss it this week. After all of those tough BBT3 tourneys, it should be a lot of fun.

:wq

So Stupid

My daughter came home the other day with a note in her backpack that said "You're stupid" and it was signed "from Tom" (name changed to protect the youngun who may or may not have perpetrated this dirty trick.) Three problems are immediately evident:

1. Some kid is picking on my daughter, and she feels bad about it. She has had trouble adjusting to her new school, especially in math, and maybe she feels stupid. My wife and her brother helped her disperse those negative thoughts, and I'm going to be helping her out more actively with the math.

2. The note was in a second-grader's large scrawl, and the signature was in a 3rd-through-5th-grader's smaller, neater printing, indicating that possibly two people wrote the note.

3. The signature was misspelled! This is a huge clue!

Here's my theory: it was the son of the lady at Bingo Night, and they were talking about my daughter the next day at the dinner table. The son is in my daughter's class, and has an older brother at the school. So I think the boys conspired to write the note, and tried to pin it on a classmate. All the more reason to bench them if they are ever on a team that I coach.

Alternate theory: "Tom" wrote the note, and intentionally wrote the "You're stupid" in poor writing, and intentionally misspelled his own name. Probably not. You can reasonably assume that an older brother would say to a younger brother, "Hey! Sign it with Tom's name, and you won't get caught!" But it would take a true future deviant to come up with the double-reverse trick of misspelling his own name in a different hand.

Mrs. Dino's theory: Whoever wrote the note thinks my daughter is So Saga, and this is his way of expressing his love. I suggested that we go to the valentines, and compare the handwriting, but she thinks we should just talk to the teacher about it. Too sensible.

I've played 4 events so far in the BBT3, and cashed in last night's Stud Hi version of the Skills Series. I was very lucky to make the BBT points (top 25%) and the money (top 15% or so). I was squeaking by with a very short stack, and at one point got the rest of money in behind early in the hand, and hit trip 3's to take the hand and cripple my opponent. He said "So stupid". I assume he was talking about my play, and not me, and I later apologized for my stupid play on his blog. He replied and it's all good. Too sensible.

Tonight, in the Mookie, the same player sits down directly to my left! That's not good, because it means he will have the preferred position in most hands when playing me. I would rather it be the other way around, to give me a fighting chance. Anyway, I was out early tonight after getting good cards, but losing on consecutive hands to a crippling suckout (80/20, so not that unusual) and a coinflip for my greatly diminished stack.

I'll have an update on the stupidity in a few days.

:wq

First World Problems

So much whining to do, and so much time.

The Brazilian ladies who clean our house had the audacity to show up while we were still eating breakfast. I told their boss to start always after 9 am. Boo hoo hoo.

I can't get into the shower because they are still cleaning up in our room. Boo hoo hoo.

I can't go to work and shower because the wife took off with my car, the cleaners parked behind her car, and, well, I don't want to just take Granny's car. Plus, I don't have shower privileges yet at work, and I would have to do another geek in front of the cheerleaders thing (Here, let's walk past all the sales guys and marketing chicks to fill out this needless insurance paperwork.) Sob!

I had to do my exercises this morning without the help of the DVD, because I left my laptop power supply at work, and ran the battery down last night. No battery also means I can't login and delete my email or get some work done. Waaaaaah!

Last night in the second BBT3 event, Mondays at the Hoy, I played fairly well, and got my money in with the better hand against pushmonkey72, and he hit his three-outer on the turn to send me packing. Snivel. Quiver.

So, I'll have to wait it out and read poker blogs while waiting for my bathroom to free up and for my wife to get home with my car. I guess that's better than being blown up by a suicide bomb, cruise missile, or mortar fire. Or being hacked to death or beaten by the police for my political beliefs or ethnic background. Or having to walk five miles for fresh water and firewood (can you say "courtesy flush" and "nice long hot shower"?) Or being in danger of foreclosure. Or wondering if I can scrape up enough money for my next hit.

So I think I'll STFU (as it says on my T-shirt).

:wq