Slow Comin' Water

First, a couple of notes.

My kids have started blogging -- see Beary World Stories if you would like to read some of their words of wisdom. One future topic will be an English to Lemur dictionary, so stay tuned.

Last night, I had a hand in the Riverchasers BBT3 tournament that made me feel bad. But I didn't feel bad enough, so I had to quantify how bad I should feel. It turns out I can build a misery index based on one simple parameter. Let me explain. I was on the button with about 15k in chips. The blinds and antes totalled 2100 chips. Everyone folded around to me, and I decided to raise, in order to steal the blinds and antes. I figured that my short-stacked opponent would fold a good percentage of the time. If she re-raised, I would have to call, because she only had enough for a min-raise. She raised, I called, I hit a full house to knock her out, and was roundly chastised in the chat box. I even had to put my head on my paws.

I ran the numbers, and my hand (62 offsuit) is about a 65-35 dog against two random cards. Against a fairly tight range of reraising hands (any pair, any ace), it is about a 72-28 dog. Pretty bad. Until you factor in the percentage of times she is expected to fold. If she folds, I win the blinds and antes (ignoring the small blind.) If I expect her to fold 100% of the time, then I always win 2100 chips. If I expect her to fold 0% of the time, I am a 66-34 dog (assuming I will always call the reraise.) I used the 72-28 number for my calculations, and it turns out that if I expect her to fold about 50% of the time, my expected value is positive. I do not think that is an unreasonable assumption, given that the big blind was about 15% of her stack, and she would want to make a last stand with some kind of a hand, not garbage. Maybe 50% is too optimistic, in which case I made a -EV play.

The call of the reraise was clearly +EV, as I had to call 2670 chips to win 8970, or 3.3-1 pot odds, and I was a 72-28, or 2.5-1 underdog. So strangely enough, after I acted, my new EV for the remainder of the hand was positive, no matter what she does. I like that. Of course, some of that value is "my" money coming back to me, so it doesn't change the EV from the perspective of the overall hand. But it is good to know that someone can't make an effective re-raise.

This sounds like something out of Julias Goat's Stupid/System. If it is stupid, please tell me how.

I will be at Kat's 1st anniversary Donkament (nee Martini Game) tonight, honing my skillz for my upcoming quick trip to Vegas.

:w
:n

Now, about the title of this post. I saw Mean Gene post about misheard song lyrics, and I've been saving up for a post on this topic. I may come back to it in the future, as I remember more, but here is my list:

From "Smoke on the Water":

Slooooow comin' waaaaater,

There's fire in the skaaiiee.

Of course, I knew there was a famous song called Smoke on the Water, and I knew the song with the lyrics above; I just never made the connection. Apparently, a lot of people are confused about the lyrics to this song.

From "I Will Survive":

Oh Commodore!

Just turn around now,

You're not welcome any more!

The real lyric is "Walk out the door," not "Oh Commodore!"

From "I Feel the Earth Move":

I feel the Earth move under my feet.

I feel the sky come on and down,

A come on and down,

A come on and down,

A come on and down,

A come on and down.

From "Come Back" by J. Geils Band:

You're a scumbag,

Babyyyy!

This one was perpetrated by my friend M on his sister, and I went along with it.

That's all I got. I thought I had more, but I don't. If I think of more, I'll post them.

:wq