Hope is not a strategy

Last night was the latest edition of the Blogger Skill Series, and this time the games was Pot-limit Holdem. This is a game I know not much about, other than Cloutier's advice (I think) that you have to build the pot in PL, while the pot takes care of itself in NL. But, whatever - it's fun, because people chat, there's an internet radio station that is sometimes broadcasting during the tournaments, and the stakes are not so high that you have to worry about it if you don't make the money. I made it further than I should have, because of a hand that CK described here. I played the hand like crap, as one of the commenters said. Here's what was going through my head at the time: when it was raised, and then called to me in the BB (with J6 s000ted) I hesitated, then called the extra 250 in an 850 pot. Maybe I'll hit something, and double or triple up (I had a short stack due to general weak play.) On the flop, I'm thinking, "Aha! I have a pair. Neither one of my opponents has hit the flop. I'll lead out, and they will fold." This was wishful thinking, as CK held an overpair with QQ -- a jack would not help me. OK, so I should not have bet, unless I hit two sixes, right? Let's check it out:

Pre-flop:

Me: 23.9% Jd6d
Hoy: 31.7% A2+,22+,JT+,72
CK: 44.5% 22+,QJ+,78s+

OK, so not a terrible call preflop.


Flop:

Board: 3h 3c 6c

Me: 24.4% Jd6d
Hoy: 25.3% A2+,22+,JT+,72
CK: 50.3% 22+,QJ+,78s+

OK, so I'm basically throwing my chips away 75% of the time (and those are generous ranges, I know). Not a good bet. Now, let's run the numbers with my "hope neither one of them has a pair" strategy:

Flop:

Board: 3h 3c 6c <--- Aha! Because I hit, I will ignore overpairs!

Me: 60% Jd6d <--- Lookin' good!
Hoy: 23.2% A2+,55-22,JT+,72
CK: 16.7% 55-22,QJ+,78s+

This is how I get in trouble. It's also how software projects get in trouble -- I cringe whenever I hear the H-word in meetings, or even worse, find myself thinking or saying it. I'm going to try to apply the same cringe to my poker decisions, and take the extra few seconds to apply some thought rather than just hoping that they other player has a hand that I dominate. The operative word there is try, so don't be surprised to see me do the same thing today, tomorrow, next week!

:wq